AI Analysis: International merchandise trade by commodity, quarterly

Executive Summary

Canada's international merchandise trade has grown dramatically over nearly four decades, with exports rising 485% (from $34.1B to $199.5B CAD) and imports rising 453% (from $35.2B to $194.5B CAD) between Q1 1988 and Q3 2025, yielding a cumulative trade surplus of approximately $9.9 billion. The dataset spans 184,224 records across 153 NAPCS product categories and reveals that trade is heavily concentrated in a small number of high-value commodity groups, while most categories trade at under $1,000M per quarter. Notable disruptions — particularly the 2009 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic — are visible in the data, though the long-term growth trend has remained broadly intact.

Key Findings

• Canadian exports grew 485% over 37 years, rising from $34.1B CAD in Q1 1988 to $199.5B CAD in Q3 2025, outpacing import growth of 453% over the same period.
• Canada recorded a cumulative trade surplus of approximately $9.9 billion across all 152 quarters, with total exports of ~$260.6 trillion versus total imports of ~$250.7 trillion over the full period.
• Trade values are heavily right-skewed: the average quarterly trade value is ~$2,721M for imports and ~$2,829M for exports, but the median is only ~$721M and ~$731M respectively, indicating most commodity categories trade at low volumes while a few dominate overall value.
• The standard deviation of trade values is extremely high (~$9,800M for imports, ~$10,100M for exports), reflecting enormous variability across the 153 NAPCS commodity categories, with values ranging from -$1,433M to $213,014M in a single quarter.
• Radioactive Ores and Concentrates is the most statistically anomalous commodity in the dataset, with a Z-score of 14.77 — its peak quarterly value of $122.3M CAD was nearly 15 standard deviations above its historical average.
• The COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp and visible trade disruption in April 2020, representing the lowest import quarter of that year, consistent with the broader global trade contraction observed during that period.
• No IQR-based outliers were detected in aggregate quarterly import or export totals, suggesting that despite short-term shocks, Canada's overall merchandise trade trend has followed a relatively stable long-run growth trajectory.