AI Analysis: International merchandise trade by commodity, chained 2017 dollars, quarterly

Executive Summary

Canada's international merchandise trade has expanded significantly from 2017 to Q1 2026, with average quarterly imports (~$150.1B CAD) modestly exceeding exports (~$138.6B CAD) in chained 2017 dollars. Consumer Goods dominate imports at $32.3B CAD per quarter while Energy Products lead exports at $27.4B CAD per quarter, reflecting distinct structural drivers on each side of the trade ledger. The data is broadly stable with no statistical outliers detected in total merchandise trade, though the distribution is heavily right-skewed due to a small number of high-value commodity categories.

Key Findings

• Canada's average quarterly imports ($150.1B CAD) exceed average quarterly exports ($138.6B CAD) in chained 2017 dollars, with both reaching near-historical highs in Q1 2026 at $158.3B and $139.9B CAD respectively.
• Consumer Goods is the single largest import category, averaging $32,281.7 million CAD per quarter, while Energy Products leads all export categories at an average of $27,360.1 million CAD per quarter.
• Trade values are strongly right-skewed: the mean of $20,634M is more than double the median of $9,575M, driven by a small number of high-value categories pulling the average upward.
• The overall range of quarterly trade values is enormous — from a minimum of $606M to a maximum of $161,601M CAD — with a standard deviation of $35,365M that is nearly double the mean, confirming extreme variability across commodity categories.
• Imports showed a wider historical range ($113.3B–$161.6B CAD) compared to exports ($114.6B–$148.4B CAD) over the 2017–2026 period, suggesting imports are more volatile in real terms.
• No statistical outliers were detected in the 'Total of all merchandise' series using the IQR method, indicating that Canada's overall trade trajectory has followed a relatively consistent long-term trend despite short-term fluctuations.
• Import and export series for similar commodity categories are highly correlated across the 28 trade series analyzed, reflecting shared economic drivers such as global demand cycles and commodity price movements.