AI Analysis: International merchandise trade by province, commodity, and Principal Trading Partners

Executive Summary

Canada's international merchandise trade dataset (Statistics Canada, Table 12100175) spans nearly 30 years of monthly data from January 1997 to February 2026, covering 250,000 records across 13 commodity categories, 29 trading partners, and three trade types. The data is heavily right-skewed, with a mean trade value of $237,122K compared to a median of just $2,372K, driven by a small number of extremely large transactions peaking at $47.6 billion CAD in a single period. Imports consistently dominate by total value, the United States remains Canada's most significant trading partner, and trade volumes show sensitivity to major economic shocks such as the 2008–2009 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

Key Findings

• The dataset contains 250,000 records spanning January 1997 to February 2026, tracking 1,131 unique time series vectors across 13 NAPCS commodity categories and 29 principal trading partners.
• Trade values are extremely right-skewed: the mean of $237,122K is over 100 times the median of $2,372K, with the maximum single recorded value reaching approximately $47.6 billion CAD in March 2015.
• Imports dominate total trade value across all periods, with Domestic Exports second and Re-exports representing the smallest share of the three trade types tracked.
• 12.6% of all records (31,547 out of 250,000) carry zero values, flagging a potential data quality or reporting gap that warrants caution in aggregate analyses.
• The correlation between trade value and year is negligible (r = 0.0179), indicating that commodity type, trading partner, and province are far stronger drivers of trade value than time alone.
• 10 statistical outliers were identified via the IQR method, all within the Re-export category, with abnormally low values in 1997–1998 and a sharp spike peaking above 3.6 billion CAD in March–April 2015.
• The United States, China, and Mexico rank among Canada's top trading partners by total value, consistent with Canada's deep integration into North American and global supply chains over the nearly 30-year period.