AI Analysis: Employment Insurance beneficiaries by employment insurance region, monthly, unadjusted for seasonality

Executive Summary

Statistics Canada's Employment Insurance dataset (Table 14100346) tracks nearly 29 years of monthly EI beneficiary counts from January 1997 to February 2026, revealing dramatic fluctuations driven by economic cycles and the COVID-19 pandemic, which pushed beneficiaries to an all-time high of 2,097,070 in January 2021. Across 1,400 records and four benefit categories, the long-run monthly average stands at approximately 498,329 persons, with recent figures (~892,215) remaining elevated well above pre-pandemic norms. All four beneficiary categories move in strong lockstep (correlations of r=0.874 to r=0.997), confirming that regular benefits without declared earnings are the primary driver of overall EI trends.

Key Findings

• The all-time peak of 2,097,070 EI beneficiaries occurred in January 2021, driven by COVID-19 pandemic impacts and emergency EI measures, while the lowest recorded value was 16,310 persons.
• The long-run monthly average of ~498,329 beneficiaries is closely matched by the median of 506,250, indicating a roughly symmetric distribution despite extreme pandemic-era spikes.
• 'All types of income benefits' has the highest average monthly count at 828,984 persons, nearly double the regular benefits average of 582,166 persons.
• Regular benefits without declared earnings (mean: 507,227) vastly outnumber those with declared earnings (mean: 74,940), accounting for the large majority of regular EI recipients.
• Recent 12-month average beneficiary counts (~892,215) are 15% higher than the earliest 12-month average (~775,854), suggesting the labour market has not fully returned to pre-COVID EI levels.
• All four beneficiary categories are very strongly correlated, with the tightest link between 'Regular benefits' and 'Regular benefits without declared earnings' (r=0.997), confirming they move almost in perfect lockstep.
• 12 statistical outliers (3.4% of 350 monthly records) were detected in the 'All types of income benefits' category, all falling outside the IQR-based normal range of 341,168 to 1,264,968 beneficiaries and largely corresponding to major economic shocks.