AI Analysis: Estimates of the number of non-permanent residents by type, quarterly

Executive Summary

Canada's non-permanent resident (NPR) population nearly doubled from 1.36 million in Q3 2021 to a peak of 3.15 million in October 2024, before settling at 2.68 million in Q1 2026, representing one of the most rapid expansions of temporary immigration on record. International students and temporary foreign workers were the primary drivers of this growth, while asylum claimants also rose steadily throughout the period. The data, drawn from Statistics Canada Table 17100121 across 14 geographies and 11 NPR categories, reveals a historically anomalous post-2022 acceleration with no major reversals across the entire five-year span.

Key Findings

• Canada's total non-permanent resident population grew by approximately 97% from 1,361,855 in Q3 2021 to 2,676,441 in Q1 2026, with a peak of 3,149,131 recorded in October 2024.
• The single largest quarter-over-quarter increase occurred in October 2023, when the NPR count surged by 314,059 persons in a single quarter.
• International students and temporary foreign workers were identified as the primary drivers of NPR growth throughout the 2021–2026 period, with asylum claimants also contributing a notable upward trend.
• The dataset is heavily right-skewed: the median value is just 2,613 persons compared to a mean of 91,234, with a standard deviation of 307,192 — reflecting extreme variability across NPR types and geographies.
• The vast majority of the 2,926 records cluster near zero (25th percentile: 91 persons), while a small number of national-level totals drive the upper range, with values reaching over 3.1 million.
• Although no individual data points exceeded a z-score of 1.5, the sustained post-2022 growth trajectory itself represents a statistically anomalous acceleration far beyond prior norms.
• The dataset covers 14 geographic areas and 11 NPR categories, with Statistics Canada updating figures quarterly — the most recent release reflecting data as of March 18, 2026.