AI Analysis: Monthly average retail prices for gasoline and fuel oil, by geography

Executive Summary

Statistics Canada's Table 18100001 provides nearly 47 years of monthly retail fuel prices across 19 Canadian regions and 7 fuel types, revealing a clear long-term upward trend from a low of 18.3 cents/litre in 1979 to a peak of 275.5 cents/litre, with an overall mean of 91.7 cents/litre. All fuel types move in near-perfect correlation (r > 0.995), driven by shared crude oil market forces, yet notable regional and category-level price differences persist across Canada. The most statistically extreme period in the entire dataset was mid-2022, when global energy disruptions pushed average prices to record highs, with Vancouver reaching 225.4 cents/litre in June 2022.

Key Findings

• The dataset spans 47 years (January 1979 – February 2026), covering 566 monthly periods, 19 geographic regions, and 7 fuel types across 45,772 records, forming 119 unique geography × fuel-type time series.
• Retail fuel prices range from a historical low of 18.3 cents/litre to a high of 275.5 cents/litre, with an overall mean of 91.7 cents/litre, reflecting decades of inflation, supply shocks, and market volatility.
• Premium unleaded gasoline at self-service stations is the most expensive fuel type on average (109.8 cents/litre), while regular unleaded at full-service stations is the lowest (69.8 cents/litre).
• All fuel types are highly correlated with one another (r > 0.995), with regular unleaded gasoline at full-service vs. self-service stations being the strongest pair at r = 0.9989, confirming shared crude oil market drivers.
• Household heating fuel shows the greatest price volatility of any fuel type, with a standard deviation of 44.4 cents/litre, followed closely by self-service diesel at 42.6 cents/litre.
• All 8 detected statistical outliers occurred in 2022, with June 2022 being the most extreme month (Z = 3.18, average 209.8 cents/litre), and Vancouver recording the single highest outlier price at 225.4 cents/litre.
• The overall price distribution is right-skewed, with most historical prices clustered between 40–150 cents/litre but a long tail extending to 275 cents/litre, driven largely by the post-2020 price surge.