AI Analysis: Freight Rail Services Price Index, monthly

Executive Summary

Canada's Freight Rail Services Price Index remains elevated across all commodity categories, with values ranging from 123.7 to 140.2 (mean: 132.8) as of March 2026, indicating freight rail prices are 24–40% above the 2018 baseline. The overall index held broadly stable between October 2025 and March 2026, rising just 0.4 points, though individual commodities diverged — Intermodal and Petroleum & Chemicals gained +3.8 points each while Grain & Fertilizer fell 3.9 points. Metals & Minerals consistently leads all categories with the highest average index of 139.5, while Grain & Fertilizer records the lowest at 126.2.

Key Findings

• All 8 commodity categories have index values above 100, confirming freight rail prices have increased across the board since the 2018 base year, with the overall index averaging 132.79 (median: 132.35).
• Metals and Minerals is the top-ranked commodity with the highest average index of 139.5, representing approximately 39.5% price growth since 2018.
• Grain and Fertilizer ranks lowest among commodities with a mean index of 126.2 and the widest variability (std: 1.70), suggesting greater price instability relative to other segments.
• Intermodal and Petroleum & Chemicals were the strongest performers over the October 2025–March 2026 window, each gaining +3.8 index points, while Grain & Fertilizer saw the steepest decline at -3.9 points.
• Four outliers were detected using a Z-score threshold of 1.5, with Petroleum & Chemicals in October 2025 recording the most extreme low (126.8, Z-score: -1.86) and Intermodal in March 2026 the most notable high (136.7, Z-score: +1.67).
• The overall Freight Rail Services Price Index remained highly stable across the 6-month observation window, moving only 0.4 points (130.2 → 130.6), with a low standard deviation of 4.48 across the full dataset.
• The narrow 13.3-point spread between the highest (Metals & Minerals: 139.5) and lowest (Grain & Fertilizer: 126.2) commodity averages suggests broadly synchronized, if uneven, price growth across freight rail sectors since 2018.