AI Analysis: New condominium apartment price indexes, by census metropolitan area

Executive Summary

New condominium apartment prices across Canada's 10 major census metropolitan areas have risen broadly since 2017, with the national nine-CMA composite index climbing 27 points to 122.4 by January 2026, though growth has been highly uneven across regions. Ottawa-Gatineau and Victoria lead with the highest current index values (142.0 and 137.3 respectively), while Calgary and Edmonton lagged significantly, with Calgary's average index of 91.6 remaining below the 2017 baseline before recovering above 107 by 2026. The data reveals a market shaped by both national macroeconomic forces — reflected in strong inter-city price correlations — and distinct local dynamics that produced a 40.4-point gap between the strongest and weakest performing cities.

Key Findings

• Ottawa-Gatineau recorded the highest latest price index of any CMA at 142.0, a gain of +40.5 points since 2017, while Victoria led all cities in average index over the full period at 132.0.
• Calgary, AB was the weakest market overall, with an average index of just 91.6 — the only CMA to average below the 2017 baseline — and recorded the dataset's single lowest value of 77.5 in mid-2020, falling below the 2-standard-deviation outlier threshold.
• Despite its earlier lows, Calgary staged one of the most dramatic recoveries in the dataset, posting a 22.0% year-over-year rebound by 2024, second only to Ottawa-Gatineau's 22.6% surge in early 2020.
• The overall price index ranged from 77.5 to 146.4 across all regions and time periods, with a mean of 113.2 and a standard deviation of 17.4, reflecting significant but unevenly distributed price appreciation since 2017.
• Toronto and Montréal both showed strong growth, with Toronto rising +31.4 points to 128.6 and Montréal climbing +35.8 points to 134.2, reinforcing eastern Canada as a zone of sustained condo price appreciation.
• Calgary and Québec City showed the most modest long-term growth, each rising only approximately 6 index points to sit just above 107 — roughly half the national composite gain of 27 points.
• Strong positive correlations between most CMAs in the heatmap analysis suggest that national-level factors such as interest rates, immigration, and housing supply constraints are primary drivers of new condominium price trends across Canada.