AI Analysis: Non-bank mortgages outstanding, by lender type, insurance status and mortgage characteristics

Executive Summary

Canada's non-bank mortgage sector grew 149.7% in total value from January 2020 to October 2025, reaching approximately $0.8 billion, with Credit Unions dominating the landscape as evidenced by their near-perfect correlation (r = 0.994) with the all non-bank lenders aggregate. The dataset — spanning 480 unique time series across 5 lender types and 60 mortgage characteristic categories — reveals a heavily right-skewed distribution where a small number of large lender-category combinations account for the vast majority of outstanding mortgage value. Structural differences between lender types are pronounced, with 'Other non-bank lenders' behaving largely independently (r = 0.163–0.445) from the rest of the market, while 83 statistical outliers point to notable disruptions likely tied to COVID-19 and the subsequent interest rate hike cycle.

Key Findings

• Total non-bank mortgage value grew 149.7% from $0.3 billion in January 2020 to $0.8 billion in October 2025, based on 24 quarterly observations.
• Credit Unions are the dominant force in non-bank mortgage lending, showing an almost perfect correlation of r = 0.994 with the all non-bank lenders aggregate and a mean outstanding value of ~$17.3 million per record.
• The dataset is heavily right-skewed: the mean value (~$12.9 million) is roughly 57 times higher than the median (~$228,095), indicating that a small number of lender-category combinations hold disproportionately large mortgage balances.
• Mortgage Investment Entities have the lowest median value (60,078) among major lender types despite strong correlation with overall market trends (r = 0.912 with all non-bank lenders), suggesting a large number of small-balance entries alongside a few very large ones.
• 'Other types of non-bank lenders' exhibit weak correlations with all other lender types (r = 0.163–0.445), indicating they operate under distinct market dynamics independent of Credit Unions and Mortgage Investment Entities.
• 83 statistical outliers (Z-score > 2.5) were identified across the dataset, with month-over-month growth spikes exceeding 5% flagged as anomalies likely linked to pandemic-era policy responses and the Bank of Canada's rate hike cycle beginning in 2022.
• The value and number of mortgages outstanding are strongly correlated (r = 0.871), confirming that growth in mortgage counts is a reliable predictor of proportional increases in total outstanding dollar value across the non-bank sector.