AI Analysis: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, housing starts, by type of dwelling unit and market type in all centres of 10,000 and over for Canada and provinces

Executive Summary

This analysis of nearly 38 years of Canadian housing starts data (1988–2026) reveals dramatic shifts in market composition, with rental construction now dominating at 27,417 units while homeowner and condo segments have retreated from their historical peaks. The data — spanning 11 regions, 5 dwelling types, and 5 market types — shows a heavily right-skewed distribution where a small number of large urban centres drive national totals, and all housing categories tend to rise and fall together with strong positive correlations. Co-op and Other market segments have virtually disappeared since the early 1990s, underscoring a fundamental structural transformation in how Canadian housing is built and financed.

Key Findings

• Rental housing is currently the dominant market type at 27,417 units, having reached an all-time peak of 35,116 units in April 2025 — signalling a sustained surge in rental construction in recent years.
• Homeowner housing has declined dramatically from its peak of 38,195 units in April 2004 to just 11,422 units today, representing the longest and most significant structural decline across all market types.
• Condo starts surged to a peak of 22,562 units in July 2023 but have since cooled sharply to 10,367 units, suggesting a notable correction in the condominium market.
• The distribution of housing starts is heavily right-skewed, with a median of just 125 units but a mean of 1,318 units and a maximum of 38,195 — reflecting the outsized influence of large urban centres like Toronto and Vancouver.
• All housing start categories are strongly positively correlated (r > 0.8 for 15 of the top variable pairs), with the strongest relationship between Apartment and other starts and Total units | Rental (r = 0.999), confirming that all segments tend to grow or contract together.
• Co-op and Other market type segments have effectively vanished, both currently sitting at 0 units after peaking in the early 1990s and late 1980s respectively, marking a near-complete exit from the Canadian housing mix.
• Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia dominate cumulative housing starts over the 38-year period, while smaller provinces contribute niche low-volume combinations that anchor the bottom of the national rankings.