AI Analysis: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, absorptions and unabsorbed inventory, newly completed dwellings, by type of dwelling unit in census metropolitan areas

Executive Summary

Statistics Canada's Table 34100149 tracks nearly 38 years of monthly housing absorption data across 37 Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas, revealing multiple boom-bust cycles from June 1988 through February 2026. The market peaked at 20,253 total absorption units in August 2002 but has declined sharply to just 5,097 units in February 2026, suggesting a significant ongoing market cooldown. The dataset's heavily right-skewed distribution — median of 41 versus mean of 206 — confirms that a handful of large metros like Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver dominate national housing activity.

Key Findings

• The all-time peak in total housing absorptions occurred in August 2002 at 20,253 units, while February 2026 recorded the lowest value of 5,097 units, indicating a potential sustained market downturn.
• Unabsorbed inventory peaked at 8,831 units in October 1990, coinciding with the early 1990s recession, demonstrating the dataset's sensitivity to broader macroeconomic cycles including the COVID-19 dip in 2020.
• The value distribution is strongly right-skewed with a mean of 206.38 and a median of just 41.00 (IQR: 11–120), reflecting that large CMAs disproportionately drive national totals.
• Single detached units show the highest mean absorption volume (254.90) with the widest variability (std=759.94), making them the most dominant and volatile dwelling type in the dataset.
• Two statistically significant outliers were identified using rolling z-scores: July 1997 (17,146 units, z=2.72) and June 2023 (8,129 units, z=2.72), both representing unusual spikes in market activity.
• Thunder Bay, Ontario is the most volatile individual CMA with a Coefficient of Variation of 1.07, meaning its absorption volumes fluctuate dramatically relative to its average compared to other metros.
• Unabsorbed inventory carries a slightly higher mean (219.11) than absorptions (193.64), suggesting that across the full 38-year period, completed units have marginally trended toward remaining unsold on average.