AI Analysis: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, housing starts, under construction and completions in census agglomerations of 50,000 and over, monthly

Executive Summary

Statistics Canada's housing dataset (Table 34100155) spans over 54 years of monthly data across 43 large Canadian census agglomerations, revealing strong long-term growth in multi-unit construction alongside significant cyclical volatility tied to economic events. The three core metrics — starts, units under construction, and completions — are highly correlated (r > 0.88), reflecting a consistent pipeline from groundbreaking to finished housing. Despite a wide range of values (0 to 15,224 units), the heavily right-skewed distribution (median of 11 vs. mean of 105.5) underscores that high-volume construction activity is concentrated in a small number of large urban markets.

Key Findings

• The dataset contains 249,280 records with a mean of 105.5 units but a median of just 11, confirming a heavily right-skewed distribution where large urban centres drive disproportionately high volumes.
• Housing Under Construction dominates in scale with a mean of 250.93 units and a maximum of 15,224 — far exceeding the averages for Housing Starts (~34 units) and Completions (~35 units) due to its cumulative nature.
• Approximately 30.6% of all records have a value of zero, reflecting months with no activity in specific unit type and geography combinations, particularly in smaller census agglomerations.
• All three housing metrics are strongly positively correlated, with the tightest relationship between Housing Under Construction and Completions (r = 0.929), confirming a reliable pipeline from construction to completion.
• Only 7 months across 54 years were statistically flagged as outliers in housing starts using the IQR method, with the upper threshold set at 2,536 units per month, highlighting how rare extreme construction surges truly are.
• The 75th percentile of all housing values sits at just 55 units, meaning high monthly counts are rare outliers, yet the dataset's maximum of 15,224 units in a single month illustrates the exceptional scale possible in Canada's largest markets.
• Housing Starts and Completions are closely matched in long-run averages (~34–35 units), suggesting a rough equilibrium between new construction initiation and project delivery across Canadian urban centres over the full 54-year period.