AI Analysis: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, housing starts, all areas, Canada and provinces, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, monthly

Executive Summary

Canada's housing starts have averaged 195,400 units annually over 36 years (1990–2026), peaking at 319,800 units in March 2021 during the COVID-era boom before cooling to 250,900 units as of February 2026. Ontario and Quebec are the dominant provincial drivers of national construction activity, while smaller provinces like Prince Edward Island (822 units/year) and Newfoundland and Labrador (2,171 units/year) contribute minimally. The data reveals a resilient but cyclical housing market, with the most recent 12-month average of 261,000 units sitting well above historical lows but notably below the 2021 peak.

Key Findings

• Canada's housing starts peaked at an all-time high of 319,800 units in March 2021 — the only statistically extreme outlier in 36 years of data (Z-score of 2.82) — driven by pandemic-era low interest rates and pent-up demand.
• The long-term average of 195,400 units/year masks a wide range, from a mid-1990s low of 97,500 units (May 1995) to the 2021 peak, representing a spread of over 222,000 units.
• Ontario leads all provinces with a mean of 68,626 units/year, followed by Quebec at 42,795 units/year, and together these two provinces are most strongly correlated with national totals (0.788 and 0.780 respectively).
• Alberta and the Prairie Provinces move in near-perfect lockstep with a correlation of 0.965, reflecting Alberta's dominance of Prairie housing construction activity.
• Newfoundland and Labrador is Canada's most independent housing market, showing weak or negative correlations with most other provinces, including -0.207 with British Columbia and -0.100 with Ontario.
• As of February 2026, housing starts stand at 250,900 units — approximately 9% below the January 1990 starting level of 276,400 units and 22% below the 2021 peak, signaling a meaningful post-boom cooldown.
• Prince Edward Island records the lowest average housing starts of any region at just 822 units/year, while Quebec's reported minimum of 0 units flags potential data gaps worth considering in provincial-level analysis.