AI Analysis: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, housing starts, all areas, Canada and provinces, 6-month moving average

Executive Summary

Canada's housing starts (6-month moving average) have cycled through multiple booms and busts over 35+ years, reaching an all-time peak of 285,210 units in June 2021 before settling at a still-elevated 256,005 units as of February 2026 — approximately 31% above the long-term average of 194,686 units. Ontario dominates provincial activity with a mean of 68,469 units, followed by Quebec at 42,587 units, while the national dataset shows strong positive correlations among larger provinces that collectively drive the Canada-wide aggregate. The data is clean, statistically robust across 5,577 records and 13 regions, with no formal IQR-based outliers despite wide natural variation ranging from 106,153 to 285,210 units at the national level.

Key Findings

• Canada's housing starts peaked at 285,210 units in June 2021, driven by a post-COVID construction surge, and hit their lowest point of 106,153 units in August 1995 during the prolonged mid-1990s recession.
• The most recent reading of 256,005 units (February 2026) sits approximately 31% above the long-term national average of 194,686 units, signaling sustained above-average construction activity.
• Ontario leads all individual provinces with a mean of 68,469 units, followed by Quebec (42,587), Prairie provinces (39,236), British Columbia (33,181), and Alberta (30,139) over the full 1990–2026 period.
• Prince Edward Island records the smallest average housing starts at just 818 units with a narrow range of only 1,598 units, highlighting the vast disparity between Canada's largest and smallest provincial housing markets.
• The overall dataset is heavily right-skewed — the mean of 33,833 units is more than three times the median of 10,929 units — due to large national and major provincial aggregates pulling the distribution upward.
• No statistical outliers were detected using the IQR method (bounds: 58K–325K units), yet the early-1990s recession decline, the 2006–2008 pre-financial crisis peak, and the sharp 2020 COVID-19 V-shaped recovery remain visually distinct anomalies in the trend.
• Larger provinces — Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Alberta — show strong positive correlations with the Canada-wide aggregate, confirming they are the primary drivers of national housing start totals across all 35+ years of data.